Email 2006 

To: Panorama@bbc.co.uk
Subject: World poverty claims - programme idea

Hello - this is to suggest a programme idea.

I have done some independent research on the basis of claims about world poverty.

Governments routinely misuse statistics on international development.

An example is the "dollar a day" statistic.  One problem is that it is for both
adults and children, but the ratio varies over time.  So other things being
equal this generates spurious "poverty reduction".   

Hilary Benn was informed of this problem in 2003, but still insists on making
claims about people "rising out of poverty" without looking at how much food is
needed.  The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation thinks food needs per person
are rising because the proportion of children is falling.   DfID has yet to take
this into account for claims about poverty.  

Other problems include the facts that 

- many indicators look "better" if more die;  

- policies have been assessed on the assumption that they were not associated
with changes in the relative price of food or rent, or changes in need;

- in an age of urbanisation, when people may leave village houses to live in
rented accommodation, the official claims about world poverty omit any
consideration of whether people need to pay rent.

I have discussed these issues with senior professors of economics and
philosophy; and senior officials in the World Bank and UN agencies.